Volume 19, Issue 4 (IJIE 2008)                   IJIEPR 2008, 19(4): 57-67 | Back to browse issues page

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Sadeghian R, Jalali-Naini G, Sadjadi J, Hamidi Fard N. Applying Semi-Markov Models for forecasting the Triple Dimensions of Next Earthquake Occurrences: with Case Study in Iran Area. IJIEPR 2008; 19 (4) :57-67
URL: http://ijiepr.iust.ac.ir/article-1-7-en.html
Applying Semi-Markov Models for forecasting the Triple Dimensions of Next Earthquake Occurrences: with Case Study in Iran Area
R. Sadeghian , G.R. Jalali-Naini , J. Sadjadi 1, N. Hamidi Fard
1- , Sjsadjadi@iust.ac.ir
Abstract:   (8807 Views)

  In this paper Semi-Markov models are used to forecast the triple dimensions of next earthquake occurrences. Each earthquake can be investigated in three dimensions including temporal, spatial and magnitude. Semi-Markov models can be used for earthquake forecasting in each arbitrary area and each area can be divided into several zones. In Semi-Markov models each zone can be considered as a state of proposed Semi-Markov model. At first proposed Semi-Markov model is explained to forecast the three mentioned dimensions of next earthquake occurrences. Next, a zoning method is introduced and several algorithms for the validation of the proposed method are also described to obtain the errors of this method.

Keywords: Semi-Markov Model, Probabilistic Forecasting Matrix, Forecasting Error, Karakaisis zoning
Full-Text [PDF 195 kb]   (2640 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Material Managment
Received: 2009/04/18 | Published: 2008/12/15
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