Volume 27, Number 4 (IJIEPR 2016)                   IJIEPR 2016, 27(4): 415-424 | Back to browse issues page



DOI: 10.22068/ijiepr.27.4.415

XML Print


Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

ebrahimi S B, emadi S M. Developing Non-linear Dynamic Model to Estimate Value at Risk, Considering the Effects of Asymmetric News: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange. IJIEPR. 2016; 27 (4) :415-424
URL: http://ijiepr.iust.ac.ir/article-1-694-en.html

Assistant Prof Assistant Prof. at the Department of Industrial Engineering, K.N.Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran , B_Ebrahimi@kntu.ac.ir
Abstract:   (530 Views)

Empirical studies show that there is stronger dependency between large losses than large profit in financial market, which undermine the performance of using symmetric distribution for modeling these asymmetric. That is why the assuming normal joint distribution of returns is not suitable because of considering the linier dependence, and can be lead to inappropriate estimate of VaR. Copula theory is basic tool for multivariate modeling, which is defined by using marginal and dependencies between variables joint distribution function. In addition, Copulas are able to explain and describe of complex multiple dependencies structures such as non-linear dependence. Therefore, in this study, by combining symmetric and asymmetric GARCH model for modeling the marginal distribution of variables and Copula functions for modeling financial data and also use of DCC model to determine the dynamic correlation structure between assets, try to estimate the Value at Risk of investment portfolio consists of five active index In Tehran Stock Exchange. The results demonstrate excellence of GJR-GARCH(1,1) with the distribution of t-student for marginal distribution. t-Copula model, estimates the Value at Risk model less than the Gaussian Copula in all cases.

Full-Text [PDF 372 kb]   (178 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Optimization Techniques
Received: 2016/10/30 | Accepted: 2017/04/5 | Published: 2017/04/17

Add your comments about this article : Your username or email:
Write the security code in the box

Send email to the article author


© 2015 All Rights Reserved | International Journal of Industrial Engineering & Production Research

Designed & Developed by : Yektaweb