جلد 24، شماره 3 - ( 6-1392 )                   جلد 24 شماره 3 صفحات 237-246 | برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها


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Khanzadi M, Nasirzadeh F, Rezaie M. System Dynamics Aproach For Quantitative Risk Allocaion. IJIEPR. 2013; 24 (3) :237-246
URL: http://ijiepr.iust.ac.ir/article-1-305-fa.html
System Dynamics Aproach For Quantitative Risk Allocaion. نشریه بین المللی مهندسی صنایع و تحقیقات تولید. 1392; 24 (3) :237-246

URL: http://ijiepr.iust.ac.ir/article-1-305-fa.html


چکیده:   (1996 مشاهده)
Allocation of construction risks between clients and their contractors has a significant impact on the total construction costs. This paper presents a system dynamics (SD)-based approach for quantitative risk allocation. Using the proposed SD based approach, all the factors affecting the risk allocation process are modeled. The contractor’s defensive strategies against the one-sided risk allocation are simulated using governing feedback loops. The full-impact of different risk allocation strategies may efficiently be modeled, simulated and quantified in terms of time and cost by the proposed object-oriented simulation methodology. The project cost is simulated at different percentages of risk allocation and the optimum percentage of risk allocation is determined as a point in which the project cost is minimized. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, it has been implemented in a pipe-line project. The optimal risk allocation strategy is determined for the inflation risk as one of the most important identified risks.
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نوع مطالعه: پژوهشي | موضوع مقاله: مدل های شبیه سازی و احتمالی
دریافت: ۱۳۹۰/۶/۱۹ | پذیرش: ۱۳۹۲/۷/۶ | انتشار: ۱۳۹۲/۷/۶

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